I study compounding systems: the structural conditions under which they accelerate, stall, and collapse. The Progress Function is the formal model. The Excess is the first commercial instrument it produces.
The Progress Function is a formal model of civilizational advance that treats progress as a multiplicative interaction of six structural variables. The framework is diagnostic: given a system, it identifies the binding constraint and specifies which intervention has the highest return. A working paper is in circulation with policy researchers. A country-level measurement index is in development.
Prior work spans agentic AI infrastructure, prediction market analysis pipelines, and energy deployment diagnostics.