I study why systems with extraordinary capability produce ordinary results. I formalize the patterns and build the infrastructure that tests them.
My current work is The Progress Function, a formal model of civilizational advance that treats progress as a multiplicative interaction of six structural variables. The framework is diagnostic: given a system, it identifies the binding constraint and specifies which intervention has the highest return. A working paper is in circulation with policy researchers. A country-level measurement index is in development.
I also build what the thesis describes. AI operational infrastructure, agentic architectures, automated workflows, and reporting systems. 100+ systems deployed for organizations from energy companies to think tanks. The building informs the theory. The theory sharpens the building.
Energy engineering. AI orchestration. Operational infrastructure. The work has spanned production AI systems for policy research institutes, prediction market analysis pipelines, agentic infrastructure for institutional clients, and energy deployment diagnostics.